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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • My father, who worked in Group Insurance for 35 years, had the best rule of thumb for retirement planning…

    He said that $1M at age 65 is worth $60K a year, indexed to inflation, for life.

    So, work from there. The original question didn’t mention indexing, so you’ll have to figure that in. $100K in 50 years will probably be below the poverty line. Also, if not indexed, then the question is almost a simple question of math. The $100K is 5% of $2M, so if you can get a better return than that then the lump sum is better…QED.

    If you are younger than 65 then the amount you can draw each year will be lower because you’ll need to stretch it out longer.

    Let’s assume that the amount is indexed to inflation, because that makes the most sense (to me, at least). If you were, say, 30 years old, then the annual amount from the capitol might be as low as $20K in order to last your whole life. In that case you be better off with the annual amount.

    If you are older, then it becomes more and more advantageous to take the lump sum, and the two amounts are probably equivalent at around age 60.

    Finally, there’s risk. With a lump sum you are at the mercy of the markets and your investment decisions. With the annual amount, the risk is involved with the entity issuing that payout. If it’s a government entity, depending on the country, it might be way safer than some private company.

    [Edit: Really bad error fixed. $1M at 65 is worth $60K/yr, not $100K/yr]



  • Fun fact…

    There’s this block in Rome just called “Sacred Area” south-east of Piazza Ravenna. It’s an excavated area with three or four temples in it. There a plaque that says that the ancient Roman Senate chambers were just west of this area, and that’s where Caesar was going/coming when he was killed.

    Anyways, there’s a hotel right on that spot. I’ve stayed there a couple of times without knowing that I was sleeping right on top of where Julius Caesar was killed.

    Now, how cool is that???










  • That number is supposed to be how much of the tariff that the exporter passes through to the importer. Essentially this is a measure of how much the producers lower their profits to lower the price to compensate for the tariffs. In other words how much the producer “pays for” the tariffs.

    This factor is “backwards”, in that it doesn’t represent how much the producer swallows, but how much they pass on to the importer. Trump’s calculations assume that the producer only passes on 25% of the tariff price increase, but the experts say the number should be much closer to 95%.

    I have to idea what “4” means.


  • I’m not no sure. 90%+ of these services are commodities and nobody gives a damn who the provider is from a technical perspective. There’s no physical component, so it’s literally a matter of signing a contract, spinning up a server/service, move the data and point everything to the new service.

    And yeah, there are technical issues that come up, and nothing is ever that easy. But think about how fast many, many companies were able to sort that kind stuff out when the had to when COVID hit.

    And that’s the thing. Cloud service disruption can be an existential crisis, so why would you leave it in the hands of a hostile foreign power?